I was listening to the Thom Hartmann show yesterday (highly recommended), and as a caller was signing off, he remarked, resignedly, that it’s now all about redoubling efforts to win the House and Senate in 2026. Thom agreed.
Fair enough. That seems to be the consensus these days. But have you seen the likely 2026 Senate map? Take a look:
The best chance for a Democratic “flip” would have to be North Carolina and perhaps Maine. Meanwhile, Democrats will have to defend Georgia, Virginia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
If voting patterns from 2024 hold, that would mean Democratic losses in Georgia and Michigan in 2026, so even if Democrats were to pick up the North Carolina seat, it would still mean a net gain of one seat for the GOP, who would then hold a 54-46 edge. And if Republicans hold North Carolina and 2024 patterns hold true, they’d hold a 55-45 edge going into 2028.
Not so good. That’s 2026… perhaps 2028 will be better?
Fat chance. If you were hoping for a better deal, think again:
The best chances for Democratic pickups would be Wisconsin and possibly, North Carolina, while Democrats will need to defend Georgia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. Again, if 2024 patterns hold, Democrats would lose Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia for a net Republican gain of three seats, even if Democrats manage to take North Carolina.
Yes, the Dems holding on to Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada and Arizona in 2026 is possible (it is a mid-term election, after all), but the Senate will still be under solid GOP control.
But If 2024 patterns hold, unless Democrats manage to flip Republican Senate seats in either 2026 or 2028, Republicans could easily hold a Senate edge of 58-42 after the 2028 elections. That means that even if Democrats manage to win the White House and House of Representatives in 2028, a Republican Senate will be able to stop them cold. And a 16-seat edge in the Senate could take half a century to overcome, if ever. In any event, such an imbalance would make the Democratic Party completely irrelevant, if they weren’t already after 2026.
So what does this mean? Simply this:
Democrats must figure out a way to win in red states. Period. Or we are fucked eight ways from Sunday.
Like any 250-year-old house, American democracy needs some serious shoring up to protect it from those who are bent on destroying it in pursuit of their own power. Fixing our democracy would actually be pretty easy, if both parties were to cooperate. Of course, Republicans never will. The four essentials will be:
- Overturning Citizens United (the Supreme Court ruling that allows unlimited corporate contributions, amounting to legalized bribery)
- Supreme Court reform to fix a corrupt, authoritarian, out-of-control court
- The addition of Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. as the 51st and 52nd states (neither has Senate representation, despite each being much more populous than several states)
- Elimination of the Electoral College
(I could have added elimination of the Senate filibuster here, but that’ll probably be gone within hours of Republicans taking control of the chamber in January.)
Each reform would fix a situation that’s profoundly undemocratic in thwarting the will of a majority of Americans. Of course, thwarting the will of the people in favor of their ultra-rich masters is precisely what Republicans want. So a Democratic sweep of all three branches of government is what would be required to make necessary reform happen… and that’s, of course, assuming that we even have fair elections in the first place. (A very big “if” indeed.)
Otherwise, America becomes an oligarchic, racist, sexist, totalitarian state, with Christian fanatics calling the shots.
This is no joke.
The idea of today’s Democrats being able to win in any red state is borderline laughable. So if I was in Democratic leadership, I’d be busting my ass to find a way to go after these authoritarian, holy-rolling, hypocritical, corrupt sell-outs where they live. Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas… we need to make them tremble. Otherwise, we are all well and truly fucked.
Dems must start with taking back the states they lost in 2024: PA, WI, MI, GA, AZ and NV. And they need to go no-holds-barred in NC, where a Republican gerrymander reinstated by the U.S. Supreme Court gave the GOP a 10-4 Congressional edge in a 50-50 state. (Had the Republican state legislature not forced an off-year redistricting in 2022, Democrats would have won the House in 2024.)
When you look at the numbers for other states, yes, it’s daunting. But giving up on half the country doesn’t only make it look like you don’t care; it’s a losing strategy in the long run.
Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy (that led to Obama winning the White House) is the right idea. I would be looking at any non-battleground red state where Trump got less than 60% of the vote. That would include Ohio, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Florida and, yes, even South Carolina.
The larger point here is to demonstrate that Democrats care about all Americans, not just coastal elites, minorities and intellectuals. So while the strategy is unlikely to flip states in the immediate future, the effort will bear fruit in other ways simply by making Democrats seem less “other” to mainstream voters.
The South was solidly Democratic for generations under presidents like FDR, JFK and Lyndon Johnson. That’s not all that long ago, and very much within living memory. If Democrats can go back to their working-class roots, they might – just might – have a shot at bringing America back from the brink of fascism.
If not… well, just use your imagination. And you can expect the reality to be much worse.
